Knibb, Gormezano and Partners
International Management and Technology Consultants

phone +44 (0) 1332-856301 
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email consult@kgpauto.com

A scenario approach to evaluating transmissions technology futures

  • Technological, economical and societal factors driving the industry to 2015
  • Evolutionary forecasts for transmissions adoption rates
  • Factors that may dislocate the evolution
  • Merging evolution with dislocation
These were the key points examined in a paper presented by Brian Knibb at the 6th International CTI-Symposium "Innovative Automotive Transmissions“ held from the 3 to 7 December 2007, Maritim Hotel Berlin, Germany.

Transmissions play a major part in achieving overall powertrain performance, CO2 output, weight and economics. These factors, and especially CO2 output, have become increasingly important over recent years driven by global warming and extreme competition for market share. The situation has been further complicated by the introduction of hybrid drive systems, introduced to help achieve better fuel economy but adding their own special effects on powertrain architecture.

Complexity is a barrier to progress and melding all these factors together to produce the most cost-effective solution in individual cases is difficult enough but made additionally complex when one has to take into account the uncertainties inherent in technology development couple with those associated with legislation, regulation and end-user preferences. The situation is further complicated by the need to develop lower cost, reliable solutions for developing markets.

Knibb, Gormezano & Partners has developed a methodology to deal with all these factors by using a scenario-based approach. It has been specifically applied to the transmissions picture in Europe, long been dominated by manual transmissions that are highly efficient in themselves but cannot contribute to overall powertrain control. The results that the methodology presents provide a major contribution to overall model and powertrain planning.

The paper can be downloaded here.