Knibb, Gormezano and Partners
International Management and Technology Consultants

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Most Safe, Most Efficient, Most Durable A philosophy for motor vehicles in the 21st Century - 2008 Launch

An outline proposal for a group-sponsored research project

Road Safety failures are a major stain on the record of an advanced society

No better example of Society's failure on the safety front is its past inability to control and reduce death and injury on the roads.

This has been recognised by the European Commission and has resulted in a number of major initiatives to improve safety with the short term target of halving the 40,000 annual death toll. Member states have also embarked on their own plans in support of this objective.

Improvements fall into a number of categories:

  1. Driver education and training
  2. Stimulating improved crashworthiness of vehicles via programmes such as EuroNCAP;
  3. Supporting and promoting improved crash avoidance technology in vehicles such as ESP;
  4. Initiatives for better road design (e.g. EuroRAP);
  5. Infrastructure improvements;
  6.  Vehicle to Infrastructure communications (e.g. e- Call);
  7. Greater law enforcement effort targeted at driver behaviour;
  8. More rigorous and extended forms of vehicle condition testing.

The project proposed here focuses specifically on Item 3 but within the context of action being taken in all eight areas.

Parallel drives to reduce CO2 through weight reduction, electronics and regenerative braking are making the situation more complex.

Along with safety improvements CO2 reduction is at the forefront of vehicle engineering programmes at the present time. Unfortunately, some of the moves in this direction introduce additional safety risks or uncertainties. Weight reduction is a good example however it is also one where there is a great deal of misunderstanding. The common believe is that lighter vehicles are less safe when in an accident but that is not true in all circumstances; they can also be manoeuvred more quickly and have shorter braking distances.

The advent of electronic brake-by-wire systems and regenerative braking also pose problems for the safety engineer but can be solved.

Some vehicle safety failures result from ageing equipment

As vehicles get older they deteriorate.

By the time a vehicle gets to age ten it has a 50%+ chance of failing the annual safety test.

Despite the popular view that motor vehicles have become more durable this is not supported by the statistics (see figure attached from Swedish data).

The best results in the series were from 1994 and 1995. Things haven't improved since.

Truck results are just as bad and heavy trailers even worse.

Recent research has demonstrated that electronic systems are no better than their mechanical or hydraulic cousins in terms of failure rates. Sometimes indeed they have been worse.

Not all accidents are the result of technical defects and failures in the vehicle, far from it. However they do represent a cause that could be eliminated by better design.

The premise therefore is that action can be taken at the design stage in the vehicle's life that will help to ensure that safety related systems and components a) more regularly meet the life expectations of the vehicle or b) provide better warning of deterioration or impending failure.

Can vehicles become more durable in the areas that matter?

It is clear that at the time of vehicle design most of the focus is on making sure the product meets very stringent quality and initial reliability standards. However, recent regulations  on emissions treatment equipment and End-of-Life requirements have demanded greater 'whole-life' attention. If this concept can be extended to safety related technical features then one might expect in-service failures be reduced. This premise can only be proved through a systematic research project that encompasses all the relevant aspects.

Objectives of Project

  • Ongoing analysis of adoption rate prospects for vehicle systems concerned with vehicle dynamics and safety;
  • An examination of the driving forces leading to systems development and adoption;
  • Key economic comparisons for competing systems;
  • A comprehensive review of regulatory and legislative programmes and thinking;
  • Factors encouraging or limiting adoption by consumers;
  • Specific Subject Matter reports on all systems and key sub-systems throughout the vehicle with volume projections based on J D Power-LMC Automotive Forecasting’s vehicle forecasts. Systems examples would include but not be restricted to:
    • ESC (Electronic Stability Control)
    • ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control)
    • CAL (Curve Adaptive Lighting))
    • LDW (Lane Departure Warning);
    • CMS (Collision Mitigation System);
    • BSM (Blind Spot Monitoring);
    • ASS (Active Suspension Control);
    • ISA (Intelligent Speed Adaptation).

Potential Partners

Clearly there are many parties interested in this subject. As far as possible project proposals and deliverables will be tailored to individual needs although the research programme for all categories will be conducted in parallel. Notable examples of potential clients include:
  • Car and Truck Manufacturers
  • Component and Systems producers
  • Software suppliers
  • Testing agencies
  • Electric drive systems manufacturers
  • Government departments concerned with industry and transport
  • Associations and networks
Several universities may also be interested especially where they are known to be working on upgrading product design and development processes or analysing the costs and benefits of change.

Next Steps

Readers are invited to register their general interest only at this stage and be prepared to have a conversation on the subject with our project manager. Contact janewoodward@kgpauto.com