A number of KGP’s on-going studies, published in conjunction with SupplierBusiness, track the rapidly growing EV/HEV industry.  But with all manufacturers now investing in new model programmes will 2011 be the year of the EV?    European Investment Bank (EIB) analysis of its investment programmes suggests that 80% of investment is still going into traditional powertrain technologies, but these are often overlooked in the headlines.  EVs and HEVs will certainly increase in market share, and availability, but will remain a small share of the market for the foreseeable future.

However with the Leaf going into production worldwide, the Chevrolet Volt’s much awaited launch and future EV and hybrid models from other manufacturers 2011 will be an interesting year.  Of 28 models in KGP EV/HEV database bought to market in 2010 18 were Lithium-Ion based, eight NiMh based.  In 2011 we expect six with NiMH and 27 with lithium Ion, although some of these may not make it to production.  Over half are expected to be EVs and half different forms of HEVs.  Notable EV launches expected in 2011 include the Ford Focus EV, various models from Renault and Volkswagen’s E-Golf.

New energy storage technologies, particularly Lithium Ion batteries, and the various chemistries will take a significant share of market for the first time, coming into the mainstream, and not just being limited to niche models.  NiMH will remain the largest volume in both vehicle volumes and number of models, but Lithium will soon catch-up.  Nissan’s Leaf programme will be the largest in 2011, using AESC (A Nissan-NEC JV) batteries.  Lithium Energy Japan, the joint venture between Mitsubishi and GS Yuasa will continue to grow as PSA models are introduced based on the Miev.  The other winner is expected to be Korea’s LG Chem, supplier to the Volt and a number of Hyundai-Kia Hybrid programmes.   Panasonic/Sanyo is also expected to come into the market with Lithium batteries in 2011 in addition to several other new entrants including Toshiba.

Comparison of Three Major HEV/EV Models
 

	Toyota Prius	Chevrolet Volt	Nissan Leaf
Type	Parallel-Series Hybrid	Plug-In Parallel-Series Hybrid	Electric Vehicle
All Electric Range (Approx.)	~2km	~56km (EPA)	~117km (EPA)
US Deliveries 2010	140,928	326	<100
Japan Deliveries/Sales 2010	315,669	N/A	<100
Electric Motor Power	36kW	111kw+63kW	80kW
Battery Chemistry	NiMH	Li-Ion Nickel Manganese Cobalt	Li-Ion Manganese Oxide
Battery Supplier	Primearth (PEVE)	LG Chem	AESC
Battery Capacity	1.3kWh	16kWh	24kWh
Base Price (US before tax incentives)	$22,800	$32,780	$32,780

 For further information please contact alexwoodrow@kgpauto.com