Following a hard year for the on-road business there are some glimmers of hope for 2010.  J.D. Power, KGP’s partner for our Heavy Engine Forecast and consulting service is forecasting global volumes will rebound 20% in 2010.  North America and Western Europe will benefit from the return of the volume, while India and China continued their growth path.  However one uncertainty is the impact of emissions impact of emissions legislation on the market.  2010 sees the adoption of EPA10 in the US, with the first trucks combining Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) , Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) and Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) now on the market.  Europe saw in the shift to Euro V in October 2009 and with no Euro VI trucks on the market yet, there is uncertainty about sales of incentive models, and as a result customers may delay some purchases further.  Manufacturers, under the ACEA flag,  are seeking to delay Euro IV legislation introduction which presents further uncertainty to customers.  India has also seen manufacturers request a delay in legislation, seeking to delay the shift to Bharat Stage IV (equivalent of Euro IV) due in 2010.  In China, 2009 saw a slow update of uptake of cleaner Euro III and IV trucks and buses as customers struggled to absorb additional costs, and engine availability was limited.

Global Truck and Bus Production Forecast - 2016	Aftertreatment Forecast 2015 Global On-Road Vehicles >6T GVW
Source: KGP - J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting Heavy Duty Engine Forecast Q309